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HP0-784 NonStop Problem Management and Resolution

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HP0-784 exam Dumps Source : NonStop Problem Management and Resolution

Test Code : HP0-784
Test denomination : NonStop Problem Management and Resolution
Vendor denomination : HP
exam questions : 152 real Questions

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HP NonStop Problem Management and

HP places fault-tolerant NonStop on a blade | killexams.com real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

Palo Alto, Calif.-based mostly Hewlett-Packard Co. has developed a brand recent fault-tolerant blade server, the HP Integrity NonStop NB50000c BladeSystem, that analysts articulate is respectable adequate to vie an IBM mainframe. the brand recent blade combines the high-availability elements of HP Integrity NonStop servers with the cost and power efficiencies of the HP c-classification BladeSystem.

The NonStop NB50000c combines usual, off-the-shelf c-type blade enclosures and blades and provides fault-tolerant aspects: The blade server interconnect within the back of the chassis is in line with the excessive-speed, low-latency interconnect ServerNet for towering availability, whereas NonStop utility allows for a fault-tolerant ambiance; if an issue arises on one blade, the workloads on it are immediately moved to one more to abide away from downtime.

The HP choices are designed for IT shops in industries infatuation monetary capabilities that attempt for zero downtime. "Fault tolerance is for functions that necessity to live up 24 hours a day and for americans who necessity to convey answers in real time," observed Randy Meyer, the director of NonStop product administration approach at HP. "it's in fact N+1 failover."

The servers additionally characteristic benchmark HP administration equipment, similar to HP Integrity integrated Lights-Out (iLO) 2 , HP systems insight manager and the Onboard Administrator for HP BladeSystem, and are based on dual-core Intel Corp. Itanium chips (and are suitable with quad-core).as much as eight NonStop blades fortunate in one chassis, Meyer pointed out.

In assessment, HP's rackmount Integrity Nonstop servers are eight U extreme and condo 4 single-core processors.

"The [Nonstop] working utility can scale throughout distinctive processors despite the fact it may possibly regain them, so poignant to a blade turned into a analytic exchange," Meyer pointed out. "The gadget is designed in parallel, so that it will possess up to four,080 blades in a single-device photo. No purchasers possess gone that grand yet, however they upshot possess customers doing a pair of thousand."

Jonathan Eunice, a fundamental IT adviser at Nashua, N.H.-based Illuminata Inc., observed HP's resolution to do utilize of blades for fault-tolerant servers is strategic and a grand persuasion for clients. "HP chose to utilize its BladeCenter design because the groundwork, in line with its approach that every one server designs may soundless spin into extra modular over time. The blade basis offers it some nice attributes, infatuation incremental add-ons or component protection, larger quantity and, as a consequence, enhanced economics."

a reputable mainframe alternative?HP has touted the Integrity NonStop BladeSystem as an excellent alternative platform for legacy mainframes because it runs the equal kinds of purposes at an identical or more desirable efficiency and at lessen can charge, Meyer pointed out, citing the Standish group international Inc.'s concurrent "trends in IT value" file.

Submitted through HP to SearchDataCenter.com, the file indicated that the Integrity NonStop BladeSystem performs the equal tasks as an IBM mainframe at 35% lessen total can imbue of possession and with as much as a 50% lessen in imbue per transaction.

Numbers in experiences infatuation this can likewise live problematic, and lots of the time, seller claims that their servers are "mainframe category" don't appear to live credible, but two analysts pointed out that during this case the claims are reliable.

"[HP Integrity NonStop BladeSystem] is the one structure in the industry that in reality has an chance at standing as much as, and even surpassing, mainframe reliability," pointed out Eunice. "HP's fault-tolerant structure has been round due to the fact that the Nineteen Eighties, and it runs gigantic stock markets, financial transaction methods, telecom analytics and fraud detection systems, and different 'have to consummate the time, always, consummate the time live up' computing."

Ken Cayton, IDC's analysis supervisor for trade systems, spoke of fault-tolerant methods infatuation HP's Integrity NonStop servers are being adopted in environments where mainframes as soon as would possess been the most efficacious reply.

"HP's fault tolerant techniques are generally used in mainframe environments or where benchmark mainframes fail to fulfill availability and reliability necessities," observed Cayton. "the brand recent blade systems can possess the very capabilities in a recent benevolent aspect that should soundless live more reasonable and modular than age methods whereas likewise being more energy efficient."

nonetheless, Eunice mentioned, "HP NonStop and IBM paraphernalia z utilize extraordinarily different system designs and styles of operation, and as you could imagine, possess different strengths, application libraries, and most excellent workloads. They don't appear to live 1:1 competitors infatuation HP ProLiant and Dell PowerEdge; you can't press application for one on the different, say. but they upshot goal lots of the very styles of purposes: big transaction processing hubs, say, or giant records analysis applications."

still, HP has achieve its cash the Place its mouth is; the enterprise is so assured that the recent Integrity NonStop NB50000c BladeSystem is nearly as grand – and more desirable – than IBM mainframes that HP has offered the gadget plus a complete yr of NonStop platform application to shoppers who determine to migrate from mainframe architectures. provided through the IT provider trade Logica, the incentive software, is known as NonStop FREEdom.

Fault-tolerant programs on the upward push?Cayton mentioned that information facilities' broader utilize of virtualization for consolidation and backup makes extreme availability more essential and can raise using fault-tolerant techniques.

but it surely's not a digital ambiance that drives the want for fault-tolerant servers however quite the want for even uptime. "expanding transaction volumes [from things like] social-scale utilize of the internet … and increasing utilize of information analytics for fraud detection, company election making, desultory analysis, etc. The underlying utilize cases are unexpectedly growing."

other companies that tender fault-tolerant servers involve Stratus technologies and NEC.

Availability and pricingThe HP Integrity NonStop NB50000c BladeSystem is accessible nowadays. Pricing begins round $300,000 for a chassis, two blades, drives and memory, and an I/O and power package. a fully configured system runs from $750,000 to $1 million.

tell us what you account in regards to the story; e mail Bridget Botelho, intelligence writer.additionally, remove a ascertain at their intelligence weblog at serverspecs.blogs.techtarget.com.


disasters, mistaken choices spurred problems with MNLARS launch, report says | killexams.com real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

That got here as piece of a document laying out the train of factors that contributed to problems with the Minnesota Licensing and Registration system, called MNLARS. The nonpartisan workplace of the Legislative Auditor on Thursday, Feb. 14, released its 86-page evaluation of the application's rollout, now and then naming grand officers who were key to its implementation.

both departments tasked with leading the task, the department of Public safety and Minnesota tips technology functions, had essentially a decade and $a hundred million to regain the recent desktop gadget up and running. And that may still've been enough, auditors wrote.

but technical issues, a need of trying out previous to the launch, terrible management and conversation by means of these overseeing the task and an absence of key stakeholders within the determination-making fashion consummate avoided a superb roll out.

"ultimately, the Minnesota department of Public defense (DPS) and workplace of Minnesota suggestions know-how capabilities (MNIT) necessity to partake the blame for the device’s deficiencies," Deputy Legislative Auditor Judy Randall and Joel Alter, director of special reviews, wrote.

In letters protected within the record, DPS and MNIT heads welcomed recommended alterations and designated work they possess been doing to expand MNLARS relocating forward. And two former MNLARS managers weighed in on the record's assessment that they possess been partly to blame.

State lawmakers had been brief to voice frustration concerning the findings and muster on the Walz administration to wreck down hurdles slowing features for Minnesotans.

Gov. Tim Walz experienced the rigor firsthand on Thursday, accompanying condition Sen. John Jasinski, R-Faribault, to the deputy registrar's workplace to transfer distinctiveness plates from one automobile to an additional. The DFL governor has stated he'll require for $15.7 million to support repair complications with MNLARS.

What came about?

In 2008, Minnesota lawmakers licensed early funding to exchange the existing 30-year-old program used to subject license plates, vehicle titles and license plate tabs with MNLARS.

the first recommended step became to assessment and redecorate enterprise practices to accommodate the recent system, the file spoke of. And while a contractor changed into employed to assist DPS upshot this, a 2014 audit discovered that the fork under no circumstances did it.

In 2011, IT specialists in various condition groups possess been consolidated into MNIT. And on the time, leaders there spoke of they didn't possess the infrastructure to build MNLARS. so that they bid out the venture and decided to work with Hewlett-Packard.

State department heads and HP contractors couldn't attain an agreement on what the terminate product may soundless be. That made it very nearly unimaginable for the contractors to achieve out a application that may meet the state's expectations, which they described as a poignant target.

In 2014, the condition dissolved the shrink after HP supplied two miniature pieces for the gadget for $18 million.

From there, the condition became left to delivery constructing its personal device. alongside the style, officers did diminutive to involve key stakeholders, troubleshoot the utility or usher in extra team of workers to work on the gadget full-time.

"MNLARS didn't fail as a result of any lone individual or election ... there should had been extra advantageous oversight and task governance in region," the report says. "MNIT did not possess valuable necessities, policies, and techniques for overseeing condition agency software tasks, and MNIT leaders gave significant discretion to a miniature number of managers."

Two managers, Paul Meekin, and Sue Rohde, possess been chargeable for overseeing the technical components of the venture and, per their job descriptions on the time, they may soundless had been accountable for the product they delivered, the auditors wrote.

"In their view, Meekin and Rohde endure a partake of accountability for a portion of the mission shortcomings described in their document," they wrote.

Meekin became positioned on leave in November of 2017 and resigned from MNIT in 2018. Rohde resigned from her MNIT submit in 2017.

In letters covered within the report, the pair defended their work and spoke of extra changes had been mandatory at MNIT.

"The path i used to live given changed into to upshot the highest quality I may with a noxious situation and convey MNLARS, which I and many other dedicated people accomplished," Rohde pointed out in her letter.

What's next?

Representatives from the workplace of the Legislative Auditor shared their findings with lawmakers in a while Thursday. forward of that assembly, legislators had been short to weigh in on the file.

“The audit makes limpid where the complications lie: ineffective leadership and condition companies lacking the confiscate oversight, assistance, and technical capability for such a massive task," condition Sen. Scott Newman, R-Hutchinson, mentioned in an announcement.

Newman chairs the Senate Transportation Finance and coverage Committee. He talked about the Legislature should soundless spoil down roadblocks that avoided a a hit MNLARS rollout and work to regain daily operations up to speed.

Walz is decided to unencumber his charge range request next week and he is said he'll require for additional money to befriend DPS add workforce to shorten wait instances. He has no longer yet introduced his longterm plans for MNLARS.

“I don’t believe it’s always a tough ask, nonetheless it’s one which I account is a grand model for us that if you’re going to require for taxpayer greenbacks, they’re inclined to pay it if they deem it’s just and they understand the Place it’s going,” Walz informed the Faribault day by day news. “I’m simply making bound that I honor their requests and do it less demanding for them.”

He has additionally waited to nominate an MNIT commissioner and based a council to befriend find a suitable fortunate for the achieve up.


hashish shares jumbled together choppy alternate with canopy boom and Hexo in focus | killexams.com real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

hashish stocks were mixed on Tuesday, amid a flurry of bulletins on the evolution of scientific and recreational-use bills around the U.S.

Pennsylvania’s medical hashish groups made at least 600,000 transactions in its first year, allowing eighty three,000 sufferers entry to the substance, Gov. Tom Wolf introduced over the weekend. sales totaled more than $132 million with the commonwealth gathering more than $2 million in tax revenue to date.

“Our intent for the subsequent 12 months and beyond is to expand the variety of grower/processors and dispensaries operating, to register even more physicians and to proceed the growth of their scientific, medically based software,” fork of fitness Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine mentioned in a press release.

For now, the medial hashish software has given makes it viable for to 25 grower/processors and 50 dispensaries throughout Pennsylvania.

New Jersey has moved closer to legalizing weed for leisure utilize with Gov. Phil Murphy and condition legislative leaders accomplishing a deal in principle on a way to tax and adjust the market, according to NJ.com, a marketing agency and endemic information issuer. The website spoke of the proposed bill would tax hashish by means of the ounce, in preference to imposing a flat revenue tax that condition Senate President Stephen Sweeney opposed.

For consummate of MarketWatch’s insurance of hashish organizations, click on birthright here.

Don’t leave out: canopy boom co-CEO reveals proper priorities for world’s biggest prison marijuana enterprise

Lawmakers possess been unable to harmonize a framework for a felony market, amid issues that falling weed expenses would carve back the amount of tax revenue the condition may compile an issue encountered in different states that possess legalized. They possess been additionally at odds over rules, with the recent bill proposing the creation of an impartial fee. The bill would additionally permit for previous convictions for cannabis possession to live expunged. The invoice should live handed via both properties of the Democratic-led condition legislatures before it can live signed into legislation.

amongst individual shares, canopy growth Corp. shares CGC, -2.46% WEED, -2.seventy five%  fell 2.8% in morning exchange. Benchmark observed the business’s fiscal third-quarter earnings released late final week showed the enterprise profiting from the initial shipments into Canada’s prison adult-use market.

“We hope persevered income expand as the company benefits from adult utilize and exotic clinical hashish income, offset quite by way of slower Canadian clinical hashish income as some buyers switch from scientific to grownup use,” analyst Mike Hickey wrote in a note. “We are expecting future product choices, including edibles and beverages, to hasten up boom in fiscal 2020 and beyond.”

Hickey costs the inventory a purchase with a C$a hundred ($seventy five) cost target, equal to about 38% above its existing trading degree.

See additionally: birthright here’s why the craft cannabis trade can thrive within the kisser of big Marijuana

in different places in the sector, U.S. listed shares of Quebec-based mostly Hexo Corp. HEXO, +2.15% HEXO, +1.forty nine%   possess been flat, after Oppenheimer initiated insurance with an outperform rating and 12 to 18-month inventory charge target of $7.00, or about 18% above its current trading degree.

“We typical show favorably upon the early efforts through the HEXO administration crew in developing a foundation to develop into a leading global CPG (client packaged items) player in the cannabis category,” analysts led by using Rupesh Parikh wrote in a notice.

The analyst renowned Hexo’s success in organising Canadian infrastructure, in becoming a member of with leading CPG player Molson Coors Brewing Inc. tap, +0.33%  and in its early innovations.

“We view the Molson Coors partnership as a grand tremendous edifice for the trade and a vote of self faith on the business’s competence to execute,” Parikh wrote. “we're closely observing the business’s means to land partnerships in different classes reminiscent of cosmetics, edibles, vapes, and so on.”

Hexo shares are trading at a discount to greater friends, many of which continue to savor expanded valuations bolstered by M&A, strategic investments and shortage cost. despite the fact, Oppenheimer referred to given the immature condition of the industry, its rating should soundless live considered as greater speculative than ratings for other CPG companies.

In January, PI fiscal named Hexo one in every of its six true picks for the primary quarter of 2019.

“We harmonize with the enterprise is neatly placed to become a major player within the hashish-infused beverage house,” analysts Chris Thompson and Philip Ker wrote on the time, assigning the stock a speculative buy rating and 12-month rate goal of $10.

examine now: UK researchers are launching a visitation looking at a cannabis-primarily based therapy for Alzheimer’s

Aurora hashish Inc. ACB, -1.70% ACB, -1.sixty one%  shares had been down 0.7%. That enterprise pronounced its newest quarterly revenue last week, pretty much quadrupling revenue but likewise showing big losses and a shrinking margin.

Tilray Inc. shares TLRY, +0.71%  were flat, and Cronos group Inc. CRON, +1.50% CRON, +1.eighty one%  shares were up 2.5%. Aleafia fitness Inc. became up 1.7%.

The ETFMG election Harvest ETF MJ, -0.17%  turned into up down 0.four%, and the Horizons Marijuana lifestyles Sciences ETF HMMJ, +0.33%  changed into up 0.5%. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.15%  and the Dow Jones Industrial common DJIA, +0.03%  had been flat to a diminutive reduce.

See also: Washington strikes nearer to offering protections for banks that work with the pot industry


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After $150 million wildfire season, Utah House panel OKs resolution urging better federal forest management | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

Ravell Call, Deseret News

FILE- In this July 5, 2018, file photo, smoke rises from a wildfire near Strawberry Reservoir in Utah.

SALT LAKE CITY — After a destructive and expensive wildfire season last year, a House panel advanced a resolution urging the federal government to pursue policies allowing for better forest management — but only after stripping language that likewise urged the federal government to minimize additional climate change.

The House Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment Committee voted 11-2 Friday to forward HCR5 to the House floor, largely in support of the resolution sponsored Rep. Ray Ward, R-Bountiful, but not going so far as to confess climate change is piece of the problem.

Fire seasons in Utah possess been "exceptionally destructive," the resolution states. last year alone, the condition saw over 480,000 acres scorched and 400 structures burned, with firefighting costs estimated to live $150 million.

Last year, Utah County wildfires forced thousands to evacuate for days, and for weeks after, the Wasatch Front's already impecunious summer air quality suffered even more.

Ward said his resolution was to address two issues aggravating Utah's worsening fire seasons: the necessity for better cooperation with federal partners on forest management solutions, as well as acknowledgement of scientific consensus that climate change is real and causing real problems in the U.S. and across the world.

"These are two very distinguished things they necessity to try to work with federal partners to do happen for the health of their forests and for their state," Ward said.

But Rep. Tim Hawkes, R-Centerville, motioned to amend the resolution to bare the climate change language, arguing the resolution would find more consensus in the Utah Legislature if it avoided "wading into what I deem are very complicated and difficult questions" and whether the resolution supports "social policies that they might question."

Rep. Phil Lyman, R-Blanding, supported the amendment, epigram the climate change language added "a layer of complexity and politics that don't travel along with reducing damage from wildfires."

13 comments on this story

That's despite a Weber condition University professor, John Armstrong, who said he teaches courses dealing with climate change, urging lawmakers to support the connection between climate change and wildfires.

"It's their job to recognize (what) the sciences are telling us," Armstrong said. "This problem is not going away."

Still, Hawkes' amendment passed. Some Republicans soundless opposed Ward's resolution — Rep. Derrin Owens, R-Fountain Green, and Rep. Keven Stratton, R-Orem — but it ultimately gained a favorable recommendation from the committee.

The resolution now goes to the House floor.


A Worthy Resolution: Addressing the Scourge of trade Managed Applications | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

They travel by many names—business-managed applications (BMAs), user-developed controls, among others. Their labels are as bespoke as the tasks they do. But it’s what they partake in common that makes them stand out. They are inevitable. Annoying. Seemingly unavoidable. And, perhaps most of all: they are spreading.

For many banking institutions, these BMAs and controls possess grown out of addition—and operational improvisation. Newly-developed trade units, acquisition flurries, and tangles of reporting requirements introduced over the post-crisis period—all of these possess left them managing the mystify of reconciliation with legacy processors that aren’t designed for this era. As a result, banks possess developed workarounds—typically housed in spreadsheets well outside the range of an enterprise data management framework—to manually complete the work that their systems cannot. These applications and controls will typically number into the thousands. Earlier this year, one global bank reported having roughly 60,000 of these running—or around one BMA for every four people working there.

That ought to live hard to upshot at a solid employing almost a quarter of a million people, and whether giant or not, firms are realizing that BMA proliferation isn’t the birthright answer. Coping with this is one of the leading drivers for the recent enterprise efforts at control, including at boardroom level, that possess gained steam in 2018. For recent control chiefs and their teams, identifying the root of the problem isn’t difficult; the distress comes in sniffing out the many BMAs that now riddle reconciliation processes; understanding the technology problem that has caused them; and just as complicated, finding the birthright data-centric solution for solving that problem (rather than potentially just making it worse).

Fixed Models Fail

Many of these apps and controls grow out of a combination of circumstances. To commence with, they will circle trading of instruments, products or transactions with recent intricate attributes that existing systems simply weren’t designed for—and can’t handle. In addition, these situations will often involve markets where automation around trade confirmation and settlement isn’t well-developed, or fully agreed and standardized. At the extreme, this can signify reaching as far back as emailing key documents, or using a fax, to receive key data and then inputting it in by keystroke. There is a sense of “this is already slow; why bother at all?”

For those that upshot bother, they find their legacy vendors will remove many—often months—to device out how to configure and implement the recent control, and given the machinations already involved, that is quite simply too long. It comes down to the fixed data models they are strapped with. Most of this time is spent writing and using ETL (extract, transform, load) tools to properly prepare and drag in the recent data, and do it translatable for matching processes. Unsurprising, then, that bank operations personnel will forward up with their own fixes—not only to manage transaction data and attributes, but incorporate derived data calculations, conditional logic, and customer-specific enrichment processes pulling from another security master or other reference data. As often, what is intended to live a temporary BMA becomes consummate too permanent.

Structured Products, Sec Lending

Take two illustrations we’ve recently analyzed: equity-linked notes and securities lending.

The former are structured products, i.e. equity-linked achieve options or principal-guaranteed notes, and are typically held to maturity. But they will involve a sequence of rules governing conditions of buy-backs, and the relationship of the product’s current value to its underlying. Securities lending, meanwhile, has become increasingly celebrated for borrowers (who will typically live shorting), lenders (institutions), and sell-side facilitators. Here again, data attributes surrounding the specific obligations of a three-party lending arrangement necessity to live accurately consumed and reconciled, including combined poise and transaction validation.

Implementing an Excel-based or AVTL control around either of these examples involves numerous challenges, and creates some of its own. Buying an ELPO or lending out stock requires significantly more initial workflow than trading in a liquid market or conventional asset movements. Processing the data associated with these activities is clunky and bound to generate exceptions that necessity to live effectively managed. And being able to accurately assess the risk they pose against the broader poise sheet is both intricate and increasingly important, significance they must live accessible and plugged into systems across the institution. consummate of this serves to both complicate reconciliation processes, and heighten their consequences.

Beyond these examples, the very issues apply to a wider spectrum of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. To pile the flavors and transactions up—across desks and trade units, over time and with recent controls potentially being generated for even a lone transaction—it isn’t difficult to survey how BMAs become troublesome. At the largest institutions, they can require millions in annual operating cost to prop up, and add significant operational risk.

Smarter Heuristics

While they may live purpose-fit to today’s transaction, the problem with surviving on BMAs is that they rarely anticipate what comes next or, for that matter, properly integrate into broader enterprise control and compliance. The stronger approach to dealing with legacy shortcomings, and the scourge of BMAs left in their wake, is to introduce technology that can live implemented both far more quickly and sustainably: by deploying smarter heuristics and training data models to fortunate the control requirement in an ongoing agile process, with built-in documentation around the transformation process from initial input to reconciliation engine.

Like most resolutions, too many BMAs spell trouble. Retiring these controls would live a grand start for 2019.

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Pie Plate Economics And The campaign For A More Intrusive Administrative condition | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

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Introduction

The recent proposal of a "Green recent Deal" ("GND") by a brand-new (millennial) member of Congress has been endorsed as a concept by many Progressives, including a number of presidential hopefuls (cf. National Public Radio, 2019; Zack Colman, 2019; Ari Natter & Billy House, 2019). It is being presented to Congress as a non-binding resolution (House Resolution 109; Government Printing Office, 2019), and it will probably pass in the House (perhaps by voice vote?), since it carries no weight as a resolution, beyond allowing some political positioning. However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will require an on-the-record vote for the version being presented to the Senate. The resolution is breathtaking in its scope and lays out a Utopian blueprint to remove over or expand the regulation of much of the economy (specifically, consummate of the healthcare, energy, and utility sectors; piece of the real estate sector; piece of the manufacturing industry (industrial sector); consummate of the transportation industry (industrial sector); piece of the agriculture industry; and piece of the forestry industry. This is consummate in the service of "clean and renewable energy;" "millions of high-wage jobs;" something vague called "justice;" another vague concept called "equity;" and the "prevention of unfair competition;" etc. This would imply direct government intervention and/or recent regulation of at least 36% of the economy.

Some possess argued that this is merely a Progressive wish list for the 2020 election, and not really a earnest proposal. Some conservatives, however, deem it may live a Trojan Horse for the eventual adoption of "full-on socialism," whatever that means (e.g., Jarrett Stepman, 2019). They will recur to the definition of "socialism" shortly. The "GND" has already been criticized as lacking scientific support for its approach to the energy sector (e.g., James Temple, 2019; Jesse Jenkins & Samuel Thernstrom, 2019). The transportation piece of the "GND" resolution likewise took a hit within days after its announcement when California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom carve the state's commitment to its high-speed rail project from 520 miles to just 150 miles. This comes amidst huge cost overruns ($77-98 billion projected cost vs. an original evaluate of $40 billion) and substantial time delays on the dream project of former Governor Jerry Brown, which has been a rolling administrative disaster for a decade (Chuck DeVore, 2019).

Prominent trade magnate, long-time Democratic donor, and potential Independent candidate for President Howard Schultz, has roundly criticized the "GND" as completely "unrealistic." He has likewise pointed out that the funding of this grandiose blueprint would live based on "punitive" taxes and impossibly big federal deficits of as much as $40-50 trillion (Naomi Lim, 2019). A few economists infatuation Glenn Hubbard of Columbia University deem the blueprint is so impractical that it will live "dead on arrival" (Bill McColl, 2019). Many people from consummate across the political spectrum (including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi [D-CA], quoted by Adam Shaw, 2019) deem it is either a pie-in-the-sky dream or an outright farce achieve together by a starry-eyed troop of incompetents (e.g., Timothy P. Carney, 2019). Labor unions possess even expressed reservations about the potential impact of the blueprint on jobs (Valerie Volcovici, 2019).

Many Progressives and "socialists" subscribe to the notion that the economy is a "fixed pie," significance they believe that if one group (e.g., the 1%, or mega-wealthy) gains an edge or makes a disproportionate amount of money, their gains possess forward directly at the expense of others (cf. impress J. Perry, 2006). This zero-sum approach may live a natural way to think, but it is not accurate. As Nobel Laureate economist Milton Friedman opined, "Most economic fallacies derive from the tendency to assume that there is a fixed pie; that one party can gain only at the expense of another." Economists proved long ago that this is absolutely not the case (cf. Robert J. Barro, 2000; Chelsea Follett, 2015; Matt Palumbo, 2015). Indeed, the world's smooth of extreme poverty has declined since 1970 simultaneously with a global expand in wealth inequality, because the pie itself got bigger (Charts 1 & 2).

Chart 1: People animate in Extreme Poverty Now the Lowest Ever

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Chart 2: Global Wealth Inequality Has Grown Since 1980

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Under the "fixed pie" fallacy, President Trump has claimed that a negative trade poise means that China is stealing the negative poise from us (they are stealing from us, but not in that way). Also, under this fallacy, Democrats of a certain stripe believe that when Jeff Bezos and Amazon (AMZN) do grand money and pay no income taxes due to their deductions for huge capital investments, the money was directly taken out of the hands of government and taxpayers. Likewise, when Amazon recently negotiated a $3 billion tax incentive deal in recent York, a bevy of recent York Democrats opposed the deal because that (theoretical, or contingent tax accounting incentive) money should possess been given to someone else (cf. Becket Adams, 2019). The influence of the "fixed pie" fallacy is rampant as well in the wording of House Resolution 109 proposing the "GND."

Investors necessity to pay proximate attention to this issue in the coming years. Just as the election of Donald Trump to the presidency caught almost everyone by surprise, the next election could oscillate back the other way quite violently. This would probably only occur under certain conditions: 1) an ongoing and profound recession; 2) a recur to substantially higher unemployment; 3) a Fed response to the recession that would involve a recur to "QE" and "ZIRP;" and 4) the continued growth of the already huge wealth inequality in the US. But consummate of these things are not only possible, they are likely, in my persuasion (Kevin Wilson, 2018a; Kevin Wilson, 2019a; Kevin Wilson, 2019b). If the political pendulum swings left in 2020, investors will live treated to a grand deal of dubiety and a major market drawdown. Because of the crony capitalism that would live built into the "GND" (more on this below), there would live a surge in most technology and many green energy stocks over time. However, the conventional energy, utility, healthcare, and transportation sectors would likely live absolutely pummeled. The banking industry would likewise likely suffer from greatly increased regulation.

What Might happen on the way to Utopia?

With respect to the specific goals of the "GND," there are two likely political outcomes in the near term, according to Timothy P. Carney (2019; Op. cit.): 1) the thing fails to achieve lift-off in practical political terms because of its combination of fantasy federal budgets, a breathtaking grab for power over the economy, unscientific energy supply goals, and extremely expensive and impractical environmental goals; or 2) the deal will pass in some watered-down form because of its oft-repeated goal of having government "invest in industry," which is a common Democratic euphemism for "crony capitalism." Don't regain me wrong, the Republicans cherish "crony capitalism" just as much as Democrats do, and they possess long practiced it (Michael D. Tanner, 2015), but they muster it a different thing than "government investing in industry."

Indeed, the list of corporate welfare and "crony capitalist" laws from both parties in recent years is impressive: Obamacare's annual support of health insurance companies to cover their losses in 2014-2016; the "TARP" bailout of supposedly regulated and/or insured banks in 2008 (almost consummate paid back however); the auto industry bailout in 2009 (not consummate paid back); huge energy sector subsidies (e.g., Chart 3); the Fed's annual payments to banks for their reserves (Chart 4) and huge annual agricultural subsidies (e.g., the ethanol requirement for motor fuels, and subsidies for growing corn; Chart 5). The "crony capitalist" misuse by both parties has historically been so big it is measured cumulatively in trillions of dollars (cf. Rand Paul, 2017; Cato Institute, 2017; Andrew Wilford, 2019). And, this doesn't import the administrative state's (read: Federal Reserve's) suppression of market prices over the last ten years, which is a de facto rejection of "capitalism" in favor of something else (Kevin Wilson, 2019a; Op. cit.).

Chart 3: Taxpayers Paying $14 B in Subsidies to Electric Utilities in 2019

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Chart 4: Taxpayers Payed Banks $38 B for Their Reserves in 2018

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Chart 5: Taxpayers possess Paid Over $395 B in Farm Subsidies Since 1996

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This second ("crony capitalist") possibility for the "GND" is really not consummate that much different than what they saw under President Obama's "green stimulus," the $90 billion semi-boondoggle that was rolled into the 2009 emergency stimulus ("ARRA") bill (cf. Michael Grunwald, 2019). On the positive side, it was characterized by many recent solar and wind projects and big recent energy research efforts, many of which were moderately successful in producing an uptick in renewable energy projects, although at pretty towering cost (Luis Mundaca & Jessika Luth Richter, 2015). However, on the negative side, the "green stimulus" was likewise characterized by the government actively choosing corporate "winners" and "losers," and it famously helped facilitate minor disasters infatuation the bankruptcy of solar solid Solyndra for a loss of $528 million to the government (Wikipedia, 2019a), and the bankruptcy of vehicle battery solid A123 Systems after an "investment" by the US of $249 million (Wikipedia, 2019b). The explosion of "green-collar" jobs that the Obama Administration touted as piece of its "green stimulus" didn't really happen either, although a low expand in "green" jobs did occur (Luis Mundaca & Jessika Luth Richter, 2015; Op. cit.; Michelle Chen, 2014). It is unknown whether there was any net expand in jobs. The cost of creating the recent jobs was something infatuation $479,000 per job, using the above-cited analysis by Mundaca & Richter and the $92 billion cost for the program. So, to the extent that the recent "GND" resembles the age Obama "green stimulus," there are reasons for some skepticism about its ultimate effectiveness.

"Socialism" Means Different Things to Different People

Now, it makes a certain amount of sense to me that some people picture "crony capitalism" as merely "socialism lite," based on the actual practices of "socialist" countries (e.g., Byron Schlomach, 2018). In other words, there is commonly a government-business nexus in "socialist" countries infatuation China or Venezuela that results in the crushing of competition and the rewarding of corporations that are friendly to the regime (Wikipedia, 2019c). Still, I would argue that "crony capitalism" as practiced by Republicans could likewise live termed "diminished capitalism," because it doesn't operate competitively enough, and prices are not set by the markets lonely (John Stossel, 2012).

The administrative state's support (from both parties) for private firms is nothing new, however, as tax preference items for miniature businesses and big corporations built into the Internal Revenue Code will likely amount to $6.121 trillion (Chart 6) over the ten-year age from 2017 to 2026 (Veronique de Rugy, 2017). The ever-expanding size of "transfer payments to individuals" in the federal budget, which possess now risen to $2.189 trillion per year (Chart 7), is likewise a token that there are stalwart "socialist" (or at least expansive welfare state) tendencies already built into the system. The question is whether this really constitutes a drift towards full-strength "socialism," or something else. As I listen to the renewed debate over the merits of "socialism," I find it a bit distracting that many people possess quite different definitions of what "socialism" is, especially compared to the people they are talking to or trying to influence (Chart 8). At this point then, it behooves us to define what is really meant by the term "socialism" (cf. George Peterson, 2016).

Chart 6: Projected Huge Costs of Federal Tax Preference Items For Corporations and Individuals (2017-2026)

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Chart 7: Exponential Growth of Federal Transfer Payments To Individuals

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Chart 8: What's in a Name?

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According to Wikipedia, "socialism" can live defined as: "a range of economic and gregarious systems characterized by gregarious ownership and workers' self-management of the means of production as well as the political theories and movements associated with them" (Wikipedia, 2019d). Because "socialism" is really a broad spectrum of systems, determining whether a country or party is "socialist" depends on the degree to which the means of production and distribution are owned or regulated by the state, and the degree to which the condition indulges in giving resources away "for free" (Council of Economic Advisors, 2018). Thus, there are many varieties of "socialism," but they drop mainly into: 1) market forms; and 2) non-market forms.

"Non-market socialism" has the goal of avoiding the presumed inefficiencies and occasional crises associated with capital accumulation and the profit system of "capitalism." It tries to achieve this by eliminating private property, markets, and other aspects of "capitalism" in favor of state-determined allocations and distributions. Experiments with this form of "socialism" possess generally met with outright disaster (e.g., China before 1980; Russia before 1998; North Korea since 1950; Cuba since 1962; and Venezuela since 1999; cf. Council of Economic Advisors, 2018; Op. cit.). So-called "market socialism" retains the utilize of at least some market prices and even, sometimes, the operation of a profit motive, but with more worker and/or government control on the distribution of those profits than is seen in "free-market capitalism." The countries of Eastern Europe that possess been transitioning away from "communism" since 1989 might live examples of "market socialism" (Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 2014; Lili Bayer, 2018). Failures here (cf. Chart 9) are a bit harder to spot; for example, Slovenia, Estonia, and Poland possess nearly matched Spain's success, and consummate three possess matched or outperformed Portugal and Greece. Not stellar, but much better than relatively unreformed economies infatuation those of Serbia, Ukraine, and Moldova.

Chart 9: Eastern European GDP Per Capita Vs. Nordic Countries, Iberia, and Germany

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There is an argument (i.e., the "socialist calculation" debate) within "socialism" about how to earmark resources in the absence or partial absence of market prices and private ownership of the means of production and its distribution (cf. David Miller, 1991; David Gordon, 1996). This argument is difficult to settle because economic models and historical analyses possess been built generally on assumptions about the deportment of the end-members in the political spectrum, i.e., "pure" versions of "free-market capitalism" and "socialism" (e.g., Patrick Tyrell, 2018), although some attempts possess been made to remove theories and models up the middle of the road via "market socialism" (e.g., Pranab Bardhan & John E. Roemer, 1992). One aspect of the "socialist calculation" is the problem that arises when there is dubiety about policy in an economy that is centrally controlled, without the known planning advantages that derive from information provided by "free" market prices and private ownership decisions.

For example, how should the administrative condition in China do economic decisions now, given the currently grand policy dubiety (Chart 10) that has arisen due to a rapidly changing political and economic environment? By supposedly abandoning unproductive government stimulus spending, but nevertheless refusing to travel "full capitalist" either, will the Chinese leadership skip along the edge of the economic abyss created by their massive credit bubble, but inamannerofspeaking never fall? I would guess that there will live a earnest problem, and that China will actually drop into the abyss (Kevin Wilson, 2018b). Indeed, is the Chinese government's goal of combining major economic reforms with the retention of absolute centralized control over the economy even remotely realistic? Turning to the US under "crony capitalism," and based on the massive interference of the Federal Reserve in the US markets and economy over the last decade, there is huge dubiety now associated with trying to recur to "normal" (Chart 11). Is it realistic for us to deem they will compass their goal of exiting their regime of low rates and huge Fed poise sheets without any major consequences? I am unafraid that the impending global recession will trap us unprepared, and they will recur to extreme monetary policies very shortly (Kevin Wilson, 2018c).

Chart 10: Chinese vs. Global Policy dubiety Indexes

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Chart 11: US Policy dubiety Index

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If Not "Pure Socialism," Then What?

I believe that the current debate over the "GND" is not really about a shift towards "pure socialism" but is rather about a benevolent of creeping drift towards either: 1) a version of "market socialism;" or 2) something called "democratic socialism." These labels appear a diminutive vague, but if I understand them correctly, the former term refers to the retention of some market pricing and privately-held means of production in an otherwise moderately "socialist" system (as already discussed), whereas the latter term refers to a democratically controlled (non-Stalinist) trudge to a moderately or perhaps even strongly "socialist" system (Wikipedia, 2019e). It would show that these two forms of "socialism" are not mutually exclusive then, at least in the near term. In any case, the stated goal of American Democratic Socialists infatuation Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (aka "AOC") is to promulgate punitive taxes on the wealthy ("from each according to his ability"), and give away a lot of "free" stuff infatuation college education, healthcare, or even perhaps "UBI" ("to each according to his needs"), just as Karl Marx suggested long ago (Karl Marx, 1875).

I possess already mentioned the extreme impact on the federal budget such a trudge to "democratic socialism" would have. It would likewise likely occasions grand economic harm, both because of the massive expand in total debt (cf. Kevin Wilson, 2018d), and because of huge disincentives to work or succeed (cf. Bob Funk, 2014). There would likewise likely live earnest economic inefficiencies in such a system (cf. David Miller, 1991; Op. cit.; Council of Economic Advisors, 2018; Op. cit.). Plus, there show to live certain "authoritarian" aspects to the "GND" and similar ideas, at least as it is defined by scholars infatuation Juan Linz (cf. Wikipedia, 2019f). Thus, the Democratic Socialists, through the means of a "GND," show to be: 1) seeking a basis for legitimacy in emotional appeals to fight easily recognized societal problems such as "climate change" (despite the relatively grand record of the US in controlling emissions; cf. Chart 12) using the expanded power of the state; and 2) seeking to Place constraints on corporate special interest groups but not on union or Progressive lobbyists (Tim Wyatt, 2019). By my calculation, the trudge towards a "GND" and "democratic socialism" would easily fullfil two of the four criteria used by academic scholars to define "authoritarianism." If the Bush, Obama and Trump presidencies are any examples, a third criterion may likewise already possess been met: that of informally defined executive authority with vaguely delineated specific executive powers (cf. Erin Hawley, 2016; Elizabeth Goitein, 2017; Jonathan Turley, 2019).

Chart 12: The grand Increases in Global CO2 Emissions Since 2005 Did Not forward From the US or Europe

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One real concern I possess on this file is about the openly expressed goal of Democratic Socialists and Progressives to remove over and/or heavily regulate major parts of the US economy. They possess only to remember those fine, towering performance (I'm being sarcastic) government programs and bureaucracies like: 1) the "VA" (wildly dysfunctional); 2) Obamacare, aka the "ACA" (greatly increased healthcare costs and loss of choice; cf. Chart 13); 3) the "EPA" (decline in enforcement actions [Chart 14] and a huge backlog of Superfund sites; cf. Jessica Morrison, 2017); and 4) the Dept. of Education (huge cost increases for diminutive benefit; cf. Chart 15) to gain a sense of perspective on the merits of more government control of the economy. They can likewise recall those truly spectacular episodic government failures, infatuation the 9/11 attacks or the grand financial Crisis, to feel a profound sense of foreboding about where this trend towards more intrusive (and ever incompetent) government could remove us (cf. Meghan Foley, 2018). It doesn't matter much at consummate which party is proposing this "GND" idea, because both believe in grand government and an expansive administrative state, and both possess fumbled the ball many times. Not only that, this trudge towards a polity best termed a "market socialist state" has already been in motion for many years anyway.

Chart 13: grand Increases in Healthcare Premiums under the "ACA" (2010-2018)

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Chart 14: abrupt Decline in "EPA" Enforcement Actions Since 2009

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Chart 15: abrupt expand in Spending on Education, to diminutive Effect

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The Road to Hell Is Paved With grand Intentions

The biggest economic problem in America in recent decades has arguably been the decline of the Middle Class as the returns to capital possess soared, while the returns to labor (Chart 16) possess stagnated (Kevin Wilson, 2017a). This has been a natural outcome of globalization, as a result of which over a billion recent workers entered the global work force in the last three decades or so. Because of the increased labor supply (and favorable tax treatment), US companies had stalwart incentives to trudge operations overseas to obtain the cheap labor. However, due to inadequate support for globalization's losers (i.e., workers in certain US industries), there is a grand deal of understandable resentment amongst these people regarding the way the "capitalist" (really, "crony capitalist") system works (Amina Dunn, 2018). This has not been improved by the massive financial bailouts and permanent job losses associated with the grand financial Crisis, nor by the widespread perception that Congress is so corrupt that it is completely dysfunctional and will not upshot anything whatsoever about growing wealth inequality (Kevin Wilson, 2016; Kevin Wilson, 2017b). President Trump's election partially resulted from consummate of this frustration with the status quo ante, but there is diminutive token today that their troubles with wealth inequality (Chart 17) are over.

Chart 16: The Returns to Labor possess Stagnated

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Chart 17: Wealth Inequality Back to Where It Was In the 1920s

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The danger (in my opinion) is that when the next recession arrives, and especially if it turns out to live a strict one (cf. Kevin Wilson, 2019c), a recent wave of exasperate and frustration will likely drive a renewed surge in Middle Class populism. This drift towards a more motivated brand of populism could theoretically lead to the landslide re-election of President Trump (in one viable but fairly unlikely scenario). But, alternatively, if the swear of a better life under Trump is perceived to possess been unfulfilled, it could lead instead to the rejection of Trump and the Republicans, and the election (as yet another act of desperation by the electorate) of a Democrat who got their party's nomination by making grand promises to the Progressives (e.g., Elizabeth Warren's backers), the Socialist Democrats (e.g. Bernie Sanders' backers, or "market socialists") and the Democratic Socialists (e.g., Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's backers, or just modest "socialists"). If they assume for the purposes of argument that the Democrats carry the day in 2020, they can hope a grand thrust for at least some of the major tenets of "market socialism," "democratic socialism," or "socialist democracy" discussed above.

So, the problems from such a grand oscillate of the political pendulum are not just the short-term practical ones that will torture Republicans and Conservatives because they will lose power and today's Progressives and "socialists" will gain control of the political agenda. I deem the economic and political theories that may live achieve to a test by the Left possess the potential to profoundly change their theory of government for decades to come. Since Democrats possess not settled which benevolent of "socialism" they want, they may regain a hybrid monster of unknown utility and highly questionable efficacy. That change could thus live far more problematic for the entire country than a lone presidential election victory by one side or the other might normally imply. In other words, I deem the "socialist" Left has grand intentions and the will to succeed, but they need any real understanding of what's wrong or how to fix it. I'm not suggesting that the Republicans possess the answers either, but I deem they are less inclined to pitch out the baby with the bath water. Indeed, their partisan politics birthright now are in my view just a symptom of the American political disease. That disease (the one that most needs to live treated birthright now) is actually the failure of government to unravel most of the major problems affecting the Middle Class for over three decades.

Thus, if the Republicans don't tender voters some means of eschew from the stagnation afflicting the Middle Class, they will very likely lose power; that is, unless voters simply can't stomach the form of "socialism" being presented to them, and determine begrudgingly to abide with Trump and his party, much as they did when they re-elected Nixon (with McGovern as the only real alternative). If the Democrats do pie-in-the-sky promises built on their faith in some form of "market socialism," and they tender lots of "free" stuff, and they even forward up with enough economic mumbo jumbo (e.g., "Modern Monetary Theory," or "MMT;" cf. John Mauldin, 2019) to convince the masses that it can consummate live paid for (through the magic of the federal printing press), they will win an historic victory. If this improbable-sounding outcome (but not much more improbable than Donald Trump's victory) actually happens, it will usher in a recent era of political and economic transformation focused on some new, hybrid form of "market socialism."

The hard left's intentions will live to do a better society through the exercise of government power, and to improve their relish of vague, feel-good emotional things infatuation "justice" and "equity" (as defined by them). I don't know about "justice" and "equity," but I'm quite certain they will utilize government power to regain what they want (just as "FDR" did), and that is exactly the mistake that the Founders were trying to obviate (Roger Pilon, 1995; Robert G. Natelson, 2018). Some people will boot the Founders' concerns as out of date, but I don't agree. This not only has political implications, it has profound economic implications.

Republicans possess been trying to counter the renewed enthusiasm for "market socialism" or "socialist democracy" (cf. Council of Economic Advisors, 2018; Op. cit.) by citing the track record for most historical forms of "full-on socialism," which is of course absolutely terrible (e.g., the USSR, China, Venezuela, etc.). However, no one is currently proposing "full-on socialism," although something infatuation that is the long-term goal (after a transition period) of the Democratic Socialists infatuation Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Meagan Day, 2018). Socialist Democrats infatuation Bernie Sanders possess attempted to rebut the conservative argument by pointing to the grand success achieved by the various Nordic economies in recent decades (cf. Jeffrey Dorfman, 2018), and likewise by noting that Western European economies possess much less wealth inequality than the US (cf. Chart 18).

Chart 18: Comparison of Wealth Inequality in America vs. Western Europe

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The instance of the Nordic economies (all of which possess been claimed by Democrats to live some version of "socialist" democracies) has been the more politically efficacious weapon in the political fight over "socialism," at least so far. It's not clear, however, that this instance should really live considered pertinent, given the mixed nature of the evidence. A number of conservatives possess responded with the counter-claim that these countries are not "socialist" at all, but instead are "capitalist" democracies that simply possess towering taxes and very big welfare states (Anthony B. Kim & Julia Howe, 2018; Ethan Lamb, 2019). Certainly, it is hard to clarify away the fact that the Nordic countries score very well on the Index of Economic liberty (Chart 19), which would hardly live expected under any brand of "socialism" that would appear worthy of the denomination (e.g., Venezuela; Julia Howe & Patrick Tyrrell, 2018).

Chart 19: Index of Economic liberty for Nordic Countries vs. America and the "UK"

Source

The fact that there are likewise some challenging counterfactuals to account just makes it harder to attach any benevolent of simple label to the Nordic countries. For example, Norway's percentage of government workers in its economy is more than double that of the US (Chart 20). The percentage of union workers in the Nordic countries is 6-8x that in the US (Chart 21). The amount of family benefits (as a percentage of GDP) paid out by Nordic countries is 4-5x the amount paid out in the US (Chart 22). At first glance, the tax system in the Nordic countries doesn't show to disagree much from that of the US (Chart 23), but when one digs a diminutive deeper, significant differences emerge (Chart 24). Furthermore, recent (2014) total tax revenues as a percentage of GDP in Denmark exceeded 50%; those in Finland and Sweden were about 44% and 43%, respectively, compared to only about 26% in the US (Chart 25). On the other hand, in contradiction to the "socialist" label applied to the Nordic countries by Bernie Sanders and others, it is a fact that government debt/GDP ratios in the Nordic countries were considerably lower than that of the US in 2015 (Chart 26). This is likely due to a concerted endeavor in recent years to spin away from the unbridled spending associated with traditional Nordic government budgets (e.g., Chart 27). Indeed, Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen recently rebutted Sanders with the statement, "I would infatuation to do one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy" (Ethan Lamb, 2019; Op. cit.). So, it is not at consummate limpid that the so-called "socialist" paradigm for the Nordic countries is an accurate or just description of what instead show to live unique "capitalist" economies with towering taxes and very expansive welfare states, as already described.

Chart 20: Government Workers as Percent of Economy For Nordic Countries vs. US

Source

Chart 21: Workers under Union Contracts in Nordic Countries vs. US

Source

Chart 22: Family Benefits/GDP for European Countries vs. US

Source

Chart 23: Top Marginal Tax Rates (Plus Payroll Taxes) in Nordic Countries Not Much Different than in the US

Source

Chart 24: Top Tax Brackets in Nordic Countries May live Far More Progressive than They Are in the US

Source

Chart 25: Nordic Countries Total Tax Revenue/GDP

Source

Chart 26: Government Debt/GDP Comparison in 2015

Source

Chart 27: Government Spending Has Fallen Sharply in Sweden

Source

Be that as it may, the coming national debate on the merits of "socialism" will hardly live decided on the facts of the matter, nor on subtle nuances visible in intricate data sets. No, it is far more likely that the publicly perceived impacts of the coming recession, the degree of wealth inequality, the viability of "socialist" giveaways to voters, and the actions taken by the current administration to ameliorate the problems of the Middle Class, will consummate live swirled around in the cauldron of public opinion, and the odor and flavor of the stew that is produced will determine the outcome. There is evidence that the public's persuasion of "capitalism" (or at least the "crony capitalism" now practiced) is declining for consummate age groups (Chart 28), but it is held in especially low respect by those under 45 years old. This is hardly shocking, given the impact of the grand financial crossroad and declining job availability on this group (e.g., at least one-third of people aged 25-29 live with their parents; Dan Kopf, 2018). Job growth in the recovery has mainly gone to low-paying sectors (Chart 29), and the employment/population ratio is soundless blue by 4% from its towering in the year 2000 (Chart 30).

Chart 28: "Capitalism's" Favorability Is Falling in consummate Age Groups

Source

Chart 29: Most US Jobs Added Since 2008 Are in Low-Paying Sectors

Source

Chart 30: Employment/Population Ratio (1990-2017)

Source

Conclusion

The Green recent Deal ("GND," House Resolution 109) is breathtaking in its scope and lays out a Utopian blueprint to remove over or expand the regulation of much of the economy. The influence of the "fixed pie" fallacy is rampant in the wording of House Resolution 109 and in the thinking of "socialists" of every persuasion, and this portends a massive political and economic transformation if Democrats win in 2020. Whether this would live a grand thing or a noxious thing depends on one's point of view, of course, but there are economic reasons to fear such an outcome. Investors necessity to pay proximate attention to this issue in the coming years. Just as the election of Donald Trump to the presidency caught almost everyone by surprise, the next election could oscillate back the other way quite violently. This would probably only occur under certain conditions: 1) an ongoing and profound recession; 2) a recur to substantially higher unemployment; 3) a Fed response to the recession that would involve a recur to "QE" and "ZIRP;" and 4) the continued growth of the already huge wealth inequality in the US. But consummate of these things are not only possible, they are likely, in my opinion.

If the Democrats upshot win in 2020, the "GND" will pass in some watered-down form because of its oft-repeated goal of having government "invest in industry," which is a common Democratic euphemism for "crony capitalism." This will live grand for certain sectors and industries, such as technology (e.g., Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund [XLK]) and green energy (e.g., Invesco WilderHill cleanly Energy Fund (NYSEARCA:PBW); Invesco Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN)). However, the conventional energy (e.g., Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE)), utility (e.g., Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU)), healthcare (e.g., Health supervision Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV)), and transportation (e.g., iShares Transportation medium ETF (BATS:IYT)) sectors would likely live absolutely pummeled. The investment and commercial banking industries (e.g., financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLF); SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA:KRE)) would likewise likely suffer from greatly increased regulation and perhaps even concerns about potential breakup of the biggest banks. The viability of "socialist" giveaways to voters will live tested as well, and that means a huge expand in the deficit (which is already near $1 trillion) and either: 1) an absolute avalanche of newly issued government debt that chokes the market and triggers a sharply dropping dollar and towering inflation; or 2) outright debt monetization on the "MMT" or Japanese model, but without Japan's advantages. In the Treasury avalanche case, bonds (e.g., iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEARCA:TLT)) would sell off dramatically. In the debt monetization case, the very bonds would decline in succumb and deliver significant capital gains, much as they possess in Japan for many years (cf. Kevin Wilson, 2018e). I deem debt monetization is by far the more likely scenario.

Disclosure: I am/we are long TLT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I possess no trade relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide information to interested parties. As I possess no erudition of individual investor circumstances, goals, and/or portfolio concentration or diversification, readers are expected to complete their own due diligence before purchasing any stocks or other securities mentioned or recommended. This post is illustrative and educational and is not a specific recommendation or an tender of products or services. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.



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