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Steve blank: expertise, Innovation and modern conflict -- classification 17 - Organizational Design - Safi Bahcall | 000-M40 Cheatsheet and Real exam Questions

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We just held their seventeenth session of their new national protection category technology, Innovation and contemporary war. Joe Felter, Raj Shah and that i designed a category to determine the brand new armed forces programs, operational ideas and doctrines to be able to emerge from 21st century technologies – house, Cyber, AI & computer studying and Autonomy.

these days’s subject turned into Organizational Design and contemporary warfare. And Finals Prep.

catch up with the category by way of analyzing their summaries of the previous sixteen courses here.

This turned into their subsequent -to-last class. while this type focused on the have an impact on new expertise and operational concepts and up to date conflict, they concept it become vital to have their students have in mind the organizational and cognitive boundaries that make adopting new technologies difficult. Their guest speaker became Safi Bahcall, author of Loonshots.

The pre-class task changed into to monitor Safi’s video about Loonshots.

moreover their speaker, these days changed into presentation prep day for their college students’ final papers. They met with all the teams and reviewed their final summaries. (an outline of their closing task follows the summary of Safi’s presentation.)

I’ve extracted and paraphrased a number of of Safi’s key insights and urge you to study the complete transcript right here and watch his video.

Invention versus Innovation

As I’ve been sitting within the back of the type for the ultimate couple of months, I’ve seen notable speakers on strategy, on expertise, on invention. I’m using the notice invention deliberately — now not innovation — because invention and innovation are various things. That factor is at the heart of the problem with innovation interior so many companies.

Invention is having an idea. for instance, in the 1920s, when Robert Goddard confirmed that they could propel steel tubes by using exploding liquid gas inside them, he invented jet propulsion. That become a very good invention. It didn’t develop into an innovation except it was developed and deployed at scale. in the case of jet propulsion, it wasn’t the U.S. that innovated. It changed into Nazi Germany with the V1 and the V2 missiles, and the Messerschmitt 262, the primary jet plane.

So what’s at the core of the difficulty for national protection companies? What’s stopping them from innovating sooner and more advantageous? It’s now not method. The 2018 country wide protection method defined very obviously and with ease what needs to get done. It’s no longer expertise. The defense force has seventy six innovation labs. It’s no longer management. Leaders throughout each provider are pounding the desk about innovation.

company Design

The defense force has three of the 4 items of the puzzle you need: method, access to expertise, management. The fourth, youngsters, is lacking. And that’s corporation design. respectable groups will kill wonderful ideas, no depend how wise the approach, how engaging the expertise, or how a whole lot leaders insist on innovation. Why that’s the case is an extended story, which I’ve written about, but the final analysis is that they should design their businesses to clear up that problem — the adoption difficulty. If they don’t try this, they can lose.

I’ll deliver you an instance. For close to 60 years, IBM dominated the IT industry. The industry was known as IBM and the Seven Dwarfs as a result of IBM’s opponents have been so far in the back of. If there became a superpower in any industry, it became IBM in IT. there were a few little competitors in the 80s, who didn’t seem like a good deal. a little enterprise in Seattle known as Microsoft. once they did their first partnership with IBM, they'd simply 32 employees. There was one more little business in Santa Clara called Intel. They were running out of money. Little opponents that IBM disregarded.

Does the story of a superpower ignoring distant threats from reputedly susceptible rivals sound universal from the type discussions on China? For IBM, strategy turned into now not the issue. Invention changed into not the difficulty. just like the DOD, IBM has a whole lot innovation labs. Many favourite applied sciences originated at IBM. management become not the problem. IBM has been pounding the table about innovation for years. but when you examine IBM nowadays, it’s 1/10th the cost of Microsoft, it’s half the value of Intel. approach, expertise, management – these had been exceptional. however decent teams kept killing superb ideas. That’s the adoption problem.

So what do they do? There are some ways. They’re now not evident. They’re now not what you examine in glossy magazines. They have nothing to do with fuzzy words like lifestyle.

It’s About creating The structure for Adoption

It’s about structure. How do you create the correct constitution that helps with adoption? one of the crucial things I found very encouraging over the final couple years in speaking with management in armed forces or intelligence is their curiosity about what’s occurring within the inner most sector, backyard their average sandbox.

when I sat down with Admiral Selby, they noted Google. Google, at the time, changed into overhauling the returned conclusion of their search engine. They constructed their search engine two decades in the past. and that they essential to repair the center of it since it became obsolete. not not like large legacy programs in the military. Google was getting that job done in blocks of six months. Selby cited that nothing like that may get completed in the military in six months. It might take six years, if not 60 years. So how does Google get it completed in six months? And what can the militia study from that?

We don’t have time to get into all the particulars they mentioned, but I’ll deliver you a flavor.

five Patterns that hamper Adoption

I’ll birth with 5 patterns I’ve accompanied throughout the carrier branches, and what they could do about them.

  • the primary is a selection for big versus small. lots of your old speakers have stated that. bigger jets, greater engines, larger ships, as adversarial to the small alterations that can make a big difference.
  • The second is a preference for product over approach. A selection for things so that you can contact – ships, weapons, planes. As adversarial to new strategies which are much less obvious, less glamorous, but can make a giant change. for instance, the tank became invented within the mid-1910s. And it turned into used in World conflict I. but it wasn’t the tank as a technology, through itself, that allowed Nazi Germany to take over Western Europe in a be counted of weeks. It was their strategy, the Blitz. specializing in technology by myself, getting caught up within the brilliant glamour of it and neglecting the less glamorous ideas on how to deploy those applied sciences creatively, is a common trap. not simply within the defense force, but additionally in Silicon Valley, the place it dooms in any other case a success companies.
  • The third is a spotlight on technology as adversarial to switch. In other phrases, a big funding in acquiring attractive new technology. With lots much less energy and a focus on selecting and navigating the inside boundaries to adoption. Assuming that respectable concepts and technologies will win the day, through themselves, and neglecting the frequently-hidden sources of internal resistance, agendas, misaligned incentives, legacy stakes. that you could spend billions on fantastic technology, on dozens of innovation labs, but if you don’t put power and creativity into winning these interior battles, the applied sciences will die.
  • The fourth is a spotlight on prototyping as adversarial to pretotyping. Pretotyping is set what to do beforethe minimum manageable product. the way to check hypotheses enormously speedy. in one day for $100. Doing it well bakes into the device a preference for hypotheses as opposed to opinions; speedy experiments in preference to massive plans; and testing ideas and strategies, not simply items and technologies.
  • And the fifth pattern is a focus on minimizing as adversarial to maximizing risks. during which I mean maximizing the intelligent risk-taking you should find important breakthroughs. I see this the entire time in mission-pushed, as hostile to profit-driven, organizations. When lives are at stake, there’s a big center of attention on cutting back possibility. within the armed forces, you don’t want loads of risk in your parachutes, or in your nuclear silos. but if you want to discover a brand new technology before your competitor, you desire possibility. You want to fail. lots. in case you most effective are trying issues that don’t fail then you definitely gained’t find the definitely crucial breakthroughs, the ones the place everybody gave up as a result of they didn’t feel it may well be achieved. And who will find them? Your adversary, who's taking those risks, who is working through the nine disasters to get to then 10th iteration, the one which works. and you’ll see that tenth generation when it’s too late, when it’s a bullet coming at your head.
  • Three options

    I’m now not going to focus on reforming the acquisition technique, which lots of your type speakers have outlined and does deserve to get completed. Doing it truly is like turning an plane carrier. It’s enormously gradual, because of the entire stakeholders. I’m going to discuss some things that are less demanding to do. more like a surgical strike.

  • 1 is dimension. in case you can’t measure it which you can’t manipulate it. Conversely, the stuff you measure well, with quite simply understood and visual metrics, tend to Excellerate with out tons added push. So the way you try this with innovation? observe the cash is the bottom line. but the indisputable fact that they aren’t doing that at all is a real problem. I remember talking with someone senior at the Joint Chiefs of team of workers who said, “We haven't any tangible approach of realizing how we’re doing on innovation across the provider branches. absolutely no concept.” in case you can’t measure it, that you could’t control it.
  • 2, rewards. A quote from an immense within the Air force, “You get promoted within the Air drive by using no longer screwing up. attempting some thing new means risking failure, scaring individuals round you, and hence risking advancement. Do what the guy did before you and teach these under you to do what you do.” A common mindset in the DoD is that the No. 1 precedence is don’t get fired. What are the implications of that mind-set? How a whole lot risk will americans take? I suggest among the many individuals that you just desire to be taking clever dangers, those that you just desire to discover new technologies and strategies before your adversaries do? Do you need the No. 1 priority in the minds of these individuals to be how do I play it safe?
  • The want for a “special forces” for innovation. no longer an extra innovation lab but standing up a new functional combatant command of program champions who can identify the inside obstacles to adopting new technologies, get a hold of options, and get the job completed. With representatives from each and every of the service branches. A joint surgical strike on innovation, instead of a disconnected big assault.
  • There’s a common failure to take into account that being a superb inventor and a good champion are vastly distinct ability units. The conception of radar become discovered by a pair of scientists in the Naval research Labs 18 years earlier than World war II all started. They have been excellent inventors, but lousy champions. The theory sat there for a decade until a naval officer named Deak Parsons found it, went around to every bureau chief, pounded the table on why it mattered, growth, boom, growth, increase, boom, until he got them to cough up a check for $5,000 to fund the mission. Robert Goddard turned into one other outstanding inventor, lousy champion. It’s as a result of there turned into no respectable champion for that thought right here in the U.S. that the Nazis – who acquired the theory from Goddard’s papers – developed missiles and jet aircraft first.

    You heard in an previous class from normal Shanahan a couple of bullheaded Colonel named Drew Cukor who pounded the table to stand up challenge Maven and JAIC to bring AI to the defense force. Cukor is essentially the most fresh in a protracted line of inside champions, like Deak Parsons or Vannevar Bush, or Schreiver with ICBMs, or Moffett with aircraft carriers, or Rickover with the nuclear Navy. They had been all terrific champions. no longer inventors.

    What they need is a new purposeful combatant command to entice, teach, and installation extraordinary champions. To boost the subsequent generation of Drew Cukors or Deak Parsons or Bernard Schrievers, in place of hoping and praying that perhaps we’ll get fortunate and yet another disrupter will come alongside in time and modernize the defense force. They now not have that luxury. They can not come up with the money for to birth their conflicts with yesterday’s expertise and hope that they will catch up. no longer within the era of facts and algorithms. Chris Brose become quoting turned into John McCain when he talked about, “Hope isn't a technique.”

    We need a separate command for the same cause that they want cyber or special operations as a separate command. The difficulty is endemic to the entire carrier branches, no longer certain to only one. And there’s a special skill set that needs to be developed. good champions deserve to be mediators, buffers between technologists and soldiers. They deserve to be bilingual, to talk the language of either side fluently. They need to take into account product market fit: why some ideas will get traction, others gained’t. They need to determine hidden organizational boundaries and come up with options. They should take into account horizontal have an impact on: the way to influence people over whom they have no direct authority. All of those are special knowledge, with most efficient practices and advantageous lessons to be realized from years of examples across the distinctive branches. Yet no such practising exists these days.

    Google does it. Microsoft does it. They’ve understood the significance of getting a distinct forces unit for innovation champions and have done it well. they devise a profession ladder to preserve people within the role, to build journey and talent, to carry prestige and respect. They preserve the role neutral, like Switzerland, neither on the research side, nor on the operation aspect, however in between, like a mediator has to be.

    if you create a joint particular forces for innovation Sherpas, for application champions, you not most effective benefit the capacity to innovate faster and more advantageous as a company. You enhance your means to entice, preserve, and motivate skill. once I put out that war on the Rocks article, I obtained emails from very mind-blowing people, with an entrepreneurial bent, who had left the militia, but clearly wanted to contribute. They said, “If that division became there, sign me up.” you put a pink rope around it, you're making that command tough to get into, you're making it as cool as SOCOM.

    examine the transcript of Safi’s total speak and watch the video under.

    if you can’t see the video click on right here.

    Over this course you’ve heard from the leading voices across the military, govt, and trade difficulty a name to motion. If they are to prevail in the challenges posed through renewed top notch power competition it is going to require leveraging new applied sciences, new innovations, and most importantly- new processes to issue fixing.

    to your final venture you will tackle the operational challenges and strategic dilemmas created by way of the changing nature of war. This assignment will draw for your creativity, critical pondering advantage, and individual experiences to present actionable thoughts to real determination-makers.

    Your ultimate assignment

    In agencies of 3-4, advance plans to handle country wide protection challenges grounded in real-world traits.

    agencies will convey a 15-minute presentation in addition to a 10-web page written document (<2500 phrases except appendices).

    Step 1: examine the scenario and prompts that observe. The state of affairs depicts escalating confrontations between the U.S. and China in the near, mid, and lengthy-time period time frames.

    The prompts current discrete operational or strategic problems faced by the U.S. militia we’ve encountered in classification readings and lectures. The prompts ask you to trust the implications of these in each and every of the instances introduced within the scenario.

    Step 2:  advance a notion to tackle your issue. anticipate your findings may be briefed to the U.S. President all over a cupboard assembly referred to as primarily to address these subject matters.

    form your strategy as you see healthy, however your plan should tackle:

  • certain moves to be taken including investment or divestment in particular applied sciences/capabilities, shifts in operations/doctrine, funds/acquisition implications, and other coverage alterations
  • The timeframe for taking these moves: how these actions might differ in the close-time period, mid-term, and long-time period cases described in the scenarios
  • Tradeoffs of your proposed options. as an instance, how do you tackle a capacity shortfall if you get rid of a weapon gadget in the near time period?
  • Key obstacles to adopting your proposed answer
  • An assessment of relative have an impact on. Which of those actions would impose the most fulfilling can charge on China if implemented? Which might sway China’s resolution calculus probably the most?
  • as an instance: a solution to the C4ISR prompt might outline key vulnerabilities in U.S. conversation networks, then establish how China may take advantage of these weaknesses otherwise right through the political coercion of Taiwan within the near-time period vs open conflict in the lengthy-term. college students would then present knowledge solutions and focus on how they may range in each case.

    businesses will even be assigned military mentors, who can function a resource in setting up useful, actionable recommendations.


    heritage: China advocates for peaceable reunification with Taiwan but has yet to officially surrender the use of defense force drive as a means to unravel the concern. in addition, the PRC has developed a range of alternatives to coerce Taipei in keeping with expanding capabilities in distinctive domains. The three eventualities under depict a gradual escalation of chinese movements towards Taiwan in the close-, mid-, and long-term timeframes.

    close-term, Coercion: The 12 months is 2022 and the U.S. has passed a law that pressures Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing enterprise (TSMC) and other Taiwanese corporations that manufacture advanced microchips to not sell their items to any chinese language entities. This movement without difficulty limits China’s entry to a essential resource- the customized chips which are vital to products that gasoline China’s domestic and export growth. Taiwan pronounces its intention to conform to the U.S. law, prompting China to retaliate with the aid of trying to coerce Taiwan into restoring access to chips. China launches excessive affect operations and focused non-kinetic attacks (i.e. cyber and disinformation) to sway customary opinion and in the reduction of assist for the Taiwanese govt’s decision. 

    Mid-time period, confined Use of force: The year is 2025, Taiwan has yet to budge on the sale of microchips. in addition, China’s coercive strategies have generated a backlash in Taiwan and have best served to accentuate anti-chinese sentiment. so as to exhibit defense force capability and deter any thoughts of Taiwanese independence, China invades the Taiping Island (Itu Aba) and Zhongzhou Reef, small Taiwanese-occupied islands in the South China Sea. Unmanned, self reliant planes and ships play a major position during this operation.

    lengthy-term, high depth conflict: The yr is 2030. 5 years of simmering resentment over chinese language moves lead to the election of a number of independence-minded politicians, some who openly voice plans for formally declaring of Taiwanese independence in the next one year. China launches an outright invasion of Taiwan accompanied with the aid of a blockade, and strikes to secure the first island chain. the us seeks to intervene so as to deter chinese language advances and fix the popularity quo. each side appear headed in opposition t open hostilities and excessive-depth battle. concurrently, China commences heavy cyber and disinformation assaults on the united states with the intention to sway American sentiment by means of inflicting ache through disruption of utility, travel, and banking infrastructure.


    Misinformation war: Disinformation campaigns designed to have an effect on tremendous numbers of individuals in delicate approaches is frequently a mainstay of future conflict. States can make the most of subversive and disruptive messaging on social media and different platforms to sow discord and confusion within an adversary’s borders.

  • How could China make the most of have an effect on campaigns to help their targets in each of the eventualities described above?
  • How may the U.S. support defend Taiwan and the American populace in opposition t these threats?
  • Your reply could address

  • Key dangers and vulnerabilities China would seek to take advantage of
  • Required equipment/applied sciences/capabilities to counter these tactics, and how to lengthen these capabilities to U.S. allies
  • The guidelines and techniques required to coordinate responses between public and private entities
  • C4ISR: The DoD relies on command, manage, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) networks to form the U.S. armed forces’s significant panic device. besides the fact that children, these centralized networks are gradual to stream counsel and possibility being disabled outright within the opening days of a battle with a technologically advanced competitor.

  • How may China take advantage of weaknesses within the C4ISR networks fielded by way of Taiwan or the U.S. to facilitate the actions described within the scenarios above?
  • How could the U.S. make sure that C4ISR capabilities are resilient satisfactory to continue to exist the complete spectrum of knowledge confrontations with China?
  • Your answer may tackle

  • Key vulnerabilities (e.g. overreliance on communique satellites or centralized nodes)
  • The architecture/capabilities crucial to build out a greater resilient communication community 
  • present obstacles to building out extra survivable networks
  • ahead-Deployed Forces: The U.S. has long relied on defense force property pre-located in the Asia Pacific to function a deterrent and first line of response. Over the closing twenty years, youngsters, China has developed the skill to exactly target fastened infrastructure in Japan, Guam and somewhere else with lots of ballistic and cruise missiles. The U.S. forces closest to a battle in INDOPACOM can be destroyed before they ever go away base.

  • How might China view the willingness and ability of forward deployed U.S. forces to reply to every of the scenarios described above?
  • In every situation, how can the U.S. ensure that forward-deployed forces current a extra credible, survivable danger?
  • Your reply may address

  • The correct sorts of capabilities/structures to pre-position in the Asia-Pacific
  • defensive capabilities necessary to deliver protection to forward deployed assets
  • how to delineate when/how these forces would respond to pursuits in the region
  • Logistics: Over the last 30 years, the U.S. has loved the luxury of taking months to gather and transport personnel, platforms and elements to quite a lot of parts of the globe with the intention to execute fight operations with overwhelming force. in the future, these vital supplies might instantly come below attack as they start to mobilize and may not ever make it into theater.

  • In each state of affairs above, how could the perceived means of the U.S. to gather a crucial mass of fight vigor in the INDOPACOM AOR affect China’s determination-making?
  • What might the U.S. do within the close, mid, and long run to more advantageous utilize out of enviornment property to supply a timely response?
  • Your reply could handle:

  • The most excellent solution to position components across the globe
  • Key limiting logistical vulnerabilities (fuel, fix constituents and so forth.)
  • The have an effect on of advances in manufacturing/production (e.g. localized 3D printing)
  • technologies/capabilities that might “conceal” the movement of ships, aircraft and floor forces
  • Non-Kinetic assaults: Cyber and electronic warfare assaults directed towards militia and civilian entities may prove simply as damaging in the future as missile salvos. States could be in a position to open a 2d entrance in conflicts through focused on real and digital infrastructure, industrial companies, individuals and their own networks.

  • How could the PRC use cyber and electronic assaults in opposition t the U.S. and Taiwan in each of the situations described above?
  • What near, mid, and long term steps could the U.S. take to improved safeguard against these threats?
  • Your reply might tackle

  • probably the most vital dangers and vulnerabilities in every state of affairs
  • Foundational equipment, capabilities, strategies obligatory to counter these hazards
  • a way to coordinate a versatile response throughout defense force and civilian sectors 
  • working in Contested spaces: Between missile forces and greater universal platforms, China is actively build up the capacity to target and strike U.S. armed forces gadgets working well-nigh any place within the Asia-Pacific. In a future battle, the nation’s primary expeditionary force, the U.S. Marine Corps, will deserve to function across the AOR whereas final smartly within latitude of chinese language weapons.

  • What close, mid, and long-term steps may the USMC take to effectively deter lower-stage aggression or engage chinese language forces in open conflict?
  • Your answer may tackle

  • Offensive capabilities obligatory to simply skirmish with chinese language forces
  • protecting capabilities needed to avoid detection or guard against precision missile strikes
  • Required shifts to USMC, Navy, and Joint force doctrines
  • The position of high-end systems: The U.S. militia has invested billions of dollars towards a small variety of excessive-conclusion weapon programs designed to show the tide of future conflicts. As we've heard repeatedly all the way through this course, however, the chinese language armed forces has purposefully obtained capabilities to target and defeat these systems neatly before they come within latitude of enticing chinese language forces.

  • What price would the current U.S. stock of excessive-conclusion ships, aircraft and other structures add in every situation described above?
  • within the long run, how might the U.S. ensure it might probably project the category of offensive energy mandatory to push returned chinese language forces?
  • Your reply may tackle

  • New structures/offensive capabilities that can be required
  • alterations to working doctrines or strategies 
  • tips on how to utilize present systems otherwise, or make them more survivable
  • Alliances: Any conflict with China would also impact lengthy-standing U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific and somewhere else. companion countries could see their own militaries and homelands subjected to the equal threats and challenges that the us would face.

  • How might the U.S. leverage regional alliances and partnerships in each situation above?
  • How could the U.S. ensure that allies and partners in INDOPACOM and in different places are capable of stronger balance chinese language energy and ambitions?
  • Your answer might address

  • The different offensive or defensive capabilities key allies and companions would need to acquire to conveniently counter chinese language armed forces energy
  • The operational function key allies and companions may still be willing to play in future conflicts
  • how to convince allies and companions of the pressing deserve to adapt to the existing strategic environment
  • gentle energy PRC initiatives corresponding to One Belt One road leverage diplomatic and economic impact around the globe to additional armed forces and safety interests. Any dispute with the us in the Asia-Pacific would seemingly spill over to other nation-states of competition.

  • How may the PRC leverage entry to global infrastructure, commercial markets, and monetary resources in every scenario above?
  • How may the U.S. counter these strategies?
  • Your answer may tackle

  • How China could take advantage of key financial, financial and diplomatic vulnerabilities the U.S. faces in a world, interconnected device
  • How expertise could be used in diplomatic, suggestions and financial nation-states to counter chinese efforts 
  • Required partnerships with the deepest sector or between the DoD and different government companies
  • Deterrence: A key theme of this route has been the deserve to invest in the right capabilities in order to deter and steer clear of future conflicts. seeing that future conflict may also involve activities that span from cyber-assaults to well-known strikes in opposition t the U.S. homeland, preventing conflict may require a fundamentally new understanding of deterrence.

  • could the U.S. have essentially modified China’s choice calculus in each of the three scenarios above?
  • What might the U.S. do within the close, mid and long-time period to readily voice an understanding of deterrence?
  • Your answer could handle

  • The certain capabilities and employment strategies mandatory to create reciprocal predicaments for chinese language forces
  • the way to naturally voice the method and prerequisites beneath which the U.S. could be willing to respond (i.e. how would the U.S. respond to a state-sponsored cyber attack?)
  • guidelines clarifying the of capabilities with ethical implications, such as synthetic intelligence or autonomous systems
  • lessons realized

    --  Invention and innovation are various things

  •  Invention is having an idea
  • It doesn’t turn into an innovation until it’s developed and deployed at scale
  • -- The barrier to innovation and adoption is how organizations are designed

  • We want different company to facilitate speedy adoption
  • -- This new corporation must:

  • Measure innovation
  • Reward innovation
  • Create a special innovation drive to champion and facilitate adoption
  • Steve clean writes about defense innovation at

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