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Test Number : C2010-657
Test Name : IBM Tivoli Netcool/OMNIbus V7.4 Implementation
Vendor Name : IBM
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IBM Implementation real Questions

IBM: more Aggressive promises, Shares remain Unattractive | C2010-657 Test Prep and Practice Questions

overseas company Machines (IBM) suggested another disappointing quarter with earnings declining as soon as once again, this time down 2.6% against Q3 2019. meanwhile, pre-tax margins a little bit extended from 8.4% to 10.4%, besides the fact that children about three-fourths of that improvement got here from further cost eliminations to SG&A, in most cases possible coming from continued headcount discount, and R&D rate cuts rather than pricing energy and go-selling of products and services. The one green shoot for IBM changed into that red Hat continued to publish incredible boom (~sixteen%), albeit still accounting for <5% of the exact line.

recent trends

One wonderful pivot turned into that administration introduced the spin-off of its administration Infrastructure features, part of the enterprise's global expertise features operating phase. This division is one of IBM's worst performers given its persistent earnings declines. Upon separation, administration anticipates reasonable income growth going ahead:

All of this could make a contribution to accelerated boom for their company sooner or later and they are expecting to deliver sustainable mid-single-digit income growth upon completion of the separation of NewCo."

removing this enterprise from consolidated working results will truly paint a rosier picture for both the proper and final analysis. in addition, there's a high probability that IBM administration will offload a significant quantity of its liabilities into this NewCo, especially debt unrelated to its finance arm, for the sake of benefitting its balance sheet. This transaction could be a leveraged recapitalization, whereby the spin-off is loaded up with debt and the proceeds are absorbed through the father or mother entity. For that motive, the spinoff could in fact signify a pleasant boon, offsetting the excessive debt financing which stemmed from the purple Hat acquisition.

That being mentioned, or not it's difficult to say no matter if that could be sufficient. heritage is definitely in prefer of the bears on the top line. For eight consecutive years, IBM's enterprise has suffered on profits and capital investment:

Chartstatistics by YCharts

while organic earnings have suffered immensely, the acquisition of red Hat has been an antidote to buoy salary and universal working efficiency. Hoping to proceed that streak, IBM's new CEO, Arvind Krishna, brought up in the Q3 2020 conference call that the enterprise plans to eventually achieve earnings increase by means of function of getting smaller during the Newco spinoff, biological enlargement, and M&A-driven boom. here are my rebuttals for each:

  • The Newco transaction is not basically "increase" as a result of management is intentionally shrinking the business to set up a smaller profits base (any enormous ample business can make itself smaller to achieve easier revenue growth comparisons).
  • The 2nd channel is certainly doable, besides the fact that children the remaining eight years of performance have confirmed the opposite (as proven by using the chart above).
  • The third channel is additionally viable, however that strictly depends on one's time horizon. Can M&A driven growth be carried out in the next couple of years? definitely, however this type of transaction would have its own penalties.
  • M&A not practicable here

    So this part requires dicing up the conference call and then reorganizing the language into a speak it's less complicated to examine through. however virtually, the CEO at the beginning claimed that M&A became on the desk by pointing out right here: "so you bought to get abilities in there and naturally, as they add M&A, that’s no longer reasonably directly from these buckets of funds, but the M&A will also add to added expenses at last...because the margin probably dilutive to us, nevertheless it’s going to be accretive against the brand new enterprise, two possibly M&A down the highway."

    The Citigroup analyst begged the question: "submit all it is the center of attention often on dividend and M&A... so that they’d be shifting greater against M&A. Is that a way to kind of read the remaining half hour they heard throughout the mp;A?"

    Having an intimate knowing of IBM's stability sheet, possible collect that it be rarely manageable for the enterprise to basically pursue any fabric M&A devoid of compromising its credit standing or completing a transaction that would mostly be considered equity-dilutive. IBM has a protracted heritage of pursuing debt-financed acquisitions for the sake of juicing shareholder returns, apart from the business's subdued working profitability and elevated monetary leverage in the last two years limit any sizeable offers today. at the moment, complete debt to EBITDA already tendencies at about four.2x, smartly above its old 2x-2.7x:

    Chartfacts with the aid of YCharts

    Do observe that the CFO, Jim Kavanaugh, cited past within the convention name that free money circulate got here all the way down to a different low mark: "Over the final yr, they generated $10.eight billion of free money flow." Then for those who account for approximately $5.eight billion in dividends, the company definitely handiest has $5 billion in discretionary FCF available to both pursue debt retirement and/or M&A. Put an additional way, with the business at present holding about $sixty five billion in long term debt, there is little cause to accept as true with that management can quite simply deleverage and grow via M&A on the identical time. It seems that buyers are more concerned about administration's capability to definitely flip the company, in place of administration papering over efficiency with one more giant acquisition, by no means intellect having to situation incremental capital.

    happily, Kavanaugh at last interjected through pointing out that the capital allocation method would now not involve any new offers but quite a specific focal point on protecting a at ease dividend and deleveraging:

    We laid that basis over the remaining couple of years, instantiated in the purple Had acquisition which was a bold movement. we've been building and accelerating that increase. Now they need to capitalize on that $1 trillion hybrid cloud probability. That precedence at this time is their relaxed dividend and sustainable increase coverage and as they get back to their centered leverage ratios, at that element in time we’ll reevaluate share repurchase. but there isn't any want talking about that at the moment."

    efficiency is still susceptible

    probably the most regarding component is that TTM pre-tax income has collapsed from $22.5 billion in 2013 to handiest $7.34 billion in 2020, or a total decline of sixty six%. it be hard to claim even if IBM has basically reached trough performance yet however ordinary issues don't seem to be first rate. With list internet hobby expenses carving away $1.2 billion, pre-tax earnings falls to best $7.34 billion, or the bottom stage on account that the 2d quarter of 2001. yes, the bottom in two a long time.

    Chartfacts via YCharts

    for those that are protecting music, trailing 12-month diluted EPS came in at $8.83/share and income estimates for the latest fiscal year are anticipated to be $9.15/share, reflecting the expectation of a year-over-12 months development.

    Chartinformation via YCharts

    it's complicated to assert whether which will truly be the case given the headwinds from COVID-19. after which in right here year, analysts expect EPS to rebound lower back to $eleven.63.that is determine is actually practicable, however means that TTM pre-tax profits will boost from $7.34 billion to $12 billion in FY21 (a 55% raise in part pushed through a sales recovery but basically because of working expense mark downs and EBIT margin inflation) and displays an exceptional tax rate of 12%. however, if one conservatively uses IBM's TTM pre-tax profit of $7.34 billion (assuming accurate efficiency going ahead) and a normalized federal company revenue tax fee of 21%, EPS would drop down to best $6.51/share. This divergence facets to the incontrovertible fact that the existing valuation requires a significant growth in working performance and a consistently low annualized tax fee.

    i'm old adequate to be aware one of the vital first 2011 IBM investor presentations that showcased the 2015 roadmap to "at least $20 of working EPS." well, now IBM continues to combat with cloud competitors and runs with an EPS of $6.fifty one, a fraction of what expectations were. certain the stock has been reduce in half in view that then, however who's to claim that the enterprise will stage a turnaround from here?

    the usage of my conservative estimate of $6.fifty one EPS (as a substitute of Wall street's reasonably aggressive consensus estimates of $9-12/EPS) would put the inventory at 17.2x revenue nowadays. even though earnings can grow via mid-single-digits from right here, the enterprise nevertheless would not be undervalued right here, which so many individuals have been led to agree with even after the inventory rate downside exhibited in 2020.

    Turnaround talents

    There are a number of instances the place i would reassess my bearish outlook, including:

  • A near-term catalyst would be the terms of the Newco spinoff transaction. If administration can offload a significant portion of debt unrelated to its finance arm and meaningfully cut back fiscal leverage than that would dispose of a tremendous overhang over the inventory.
  • a further close-term component would be if IBM can actually print biological earnings increase in the range of four-6%, in-line with its core-single-digit forecast that became described on the last convention call. it's viable given the cloud market is turning out to be, however other cloud providers stay fiercely aggressive and such growth isn't a given for a laggard.
  • A medium term aspect, i.e. 2022 and past, would be if management makes a concerted effort on debt discount with free cash move, in which leverage methods its outdated old range.
  • an extra medium time period ingredient can be if crimson Hat can proceed to strong earnings growth without any significant deceleration, principally seeing that here's considered one of IBM's strongest businesses.
  • and eventually, if the coronavirus pandemic subsides and the economy recovers greater wholly, then usual earnings will naturally enrich as well.
  • final analysis

    right now, habitual net salary have collapsed, fiscal leverage remains improved, and administration continues to battle with its company strategy, as evidenced via the speak on the Q3 2020 convention call. perhaps with the spinoff management will be able to offload debt and focus their attention on what they describe as "the $1 trillion hybrid cloud market possibility." On steadiness although, there is no intent to be bullish except the enterprise can reveal a true, consistent development in true line growth or if shares become vastly more cost-effective, i.e. beneath $one hundred/share. The silver lining is that the 5.eight% dividend yield is drawing near its closing height degree exhibited in March, so it could profit some assist from the salary investor crowd. should still the aforementioned turnaround factors materialize, i'd reassess and perhaps trade my bearish outlook. if in case you have any questions or feedback, please state them in the comments below.

    As all the time, thank you for reading. in case you discovered this article wonderful and would like to read more analysis like this, please click the "follow" button at the right of the page.

    Disclosure: I/we haven't any positions in any shares outlined, and no plans to initiate any positions inside the next seventy two hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. i am not receiving compensation for it (aside from from looking for Alpha). I haven't any company relationship with any company whose stock is outlined in this article.


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